Seventh District Update, October 2014

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A summary of economic conditions in the Seventh District from the latest release of the Beige Book and from other indicators of regional business activity:

  • Overall conditions: Growth in economic activity in the Seventh District remained moderate in September, and contacts maintained their optimistic outlook for the rest of the year.
  • Consumer spending: Consumer spending was led by continued strength in auto sales. Non-auto spending increased slightly, as growth picked up for discretionary spending categories. Retail contacts generally expected that holiday sales would be up slightly relative to a year ago.
  • Business Spending: Capital expenditures and spending plans increased, as a number of manufacturing contacts reported plans for expansion in the near future. Both actual hiring and hiring plans increased at a moderate pace, and many contacts reported slightly higher turnover.
  • Construction and Real Estate: Residential and nonresidential construction increased. Growth in home sales and prices slowed somewhat, while vacancies ticked down and leasing of industrial buildings, office space, and retail space all increased.
  • Manufacturing: The auto, aerospace, and energy industries remained a source of strength. Demand for steel increased and demand for heavy machinery picked up some on net, as higher demand for construction machinery overshadowed weakness for ag and mining machinery.
  • Banking and finance: Credit conditions were mixed. Equity market volatility increased and corporate bond spreads widened, even as business and consumer lending increased.
  • Prices and Costs: Energy costs declined, while steel and aluminum prices increased. Retail prices were down slightly as contacts reported more generous sales promotions. Overall, wage pressures were modest, and non-wage labor costs changed little.
  • Agriculture: Overall crop conditions were very good and the District should see record corn and soybean harvests. The huge anticipated harvests pushed down corn and soybean prices.

The Midwest Economy Index (MEI) decreased to +0.55 in August from +0.63 in July, but remained above average for the fifth straight month. The relative MEI edged down to +0.26 in August from +0.31 in the previous month. August’s value for the relative MEI indicates that Midwest economic growth was somewhat higher than would typically be suggested by the growth rate of the national economy.